Recent drought conditions have caught the attention of many people, and a question commonly asked is: How bad is this drought? Is this the driest series of monsoon years, and are these the lowest flows the Rio Grande has ever experienced? Are these drought conditions an indication of climate change, or just part of the natural variability of the climate system? How often are winters with low runoff followed by dry monsoons? Gage record of rainfall and stream flow for this region are little more than 100 years in the best cases. Do these records fully capture the range of conditions that could occur under natural climate variability?