New study indicates "peak oil" driven by demand, not supply

PDF versionPDF version

Researchers from Stanford University and the University of California-Santa Cruz have released a study that provides a new perspective on the future of Earth’s oil supply. The study concludes that the demand for oil, rather than the supply, will reach a peak and then begin to decline.

In marked contrast to other peak oil studies that generate a wide range of possible scenarios as the world reaches, and then passes, peak oil production, the team of researchers predict that “limits on consumption by the wealthy, better fuel efficiency, lower priced alternative fuels and the world's rapidly urbanizing population” will decrease the demand for oil before a supply peak is reached.

Those interested can project global oil demand, using the study’s model and their own set of assumptions, located on the Stanford University Environmental Assessment and Optimization Group webpage. Although the study makes no predictions concerning oil prices, its conclusions on customer demand would likely be interesting to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee which held a hearing on domestic oil production earlier this month.