In the U.S. Energy Information Agency’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), which presents yearly projections and analysis of energy topics based on current conditions, projected domestic crude oil production ranges from 6-8 million barrels per day for the next 30 years. However, using greater supply assumptions, domestic crude oil production could be sustained at approximately10 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2040. This higher resource case was developed by the EIA to analyze the effects of higher domestic production on energy demand, imports, and prices. In this scenario, total domestic liquid fuel production (which includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, biofuels, and other liquid fuels) increases to greater than 18 million barrels per day in 2040. This level of domestic production reduces projected imports to just 7% or less of total demand, a significant decrease when compared to nearly 40% in 2012.
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