Geoscience Policy Monthly Review
october 2014
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environment
State Department announces priorities for Arctic Council chairmanship
October 23, 2014
On October 23, the U.S. State Department announced that climate change adaptation and mitigation will be top priorities when the U.S. assumes the chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2015. To meet this priority, the U.S. plans to focus on monitoring pollutants, increasing resiliency in Arctic communities, continuing climate research, and establishing new marine protected areas. Environmental organizations have expressed their support for these actions, but other stakeholder groups have suggested the State Department should focus on other issues, particularly resource development.
The Arctic Council was established in 1996 under the Ottawa Declaration as an intergovernmental forum to promote cooperation on issues such as sustainable development, environmental protection, and natural resource management within the Arctic Circle. Chairmanship rotates between the eight member countries.
During its first chairmanship from 1998 to 2000, the U.S. focused on human health, launching the International Circumpolar Surveillance, a project led by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to monitor disease spread and prevention in the unique Arctic environment. In 2004, the U.S. also initiated the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), the first comprehensive scientific study of climate change in the Arctic.
Sources: The Arctic Council, E&E News
Updated 11/4/2014
Weak El Nino conditions likely to develop for winter 2013-14
October 9, 2014
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reports that weak El Niño conditions have a 60-65 percent chance of developing this fall and winter. El Niño is a set of ocean and atmosphere conditions that affect global weather, generally producing wet and warm winters in western North and South America and dry conditions in the western Pacific and Southeast Asia. The strong El Niño of 1997-98 was responsible for frequent storms in coastal California, resulting in costly floods and landslides.
Californians hope that an El Niño event will provide drought relief, but the weak conditions predicted may not provide enough precipitation to refill depleted reservoirs and aquifers. According to NOAA, southern California is likely to receive above-average rainfall, but forecasters predict only a one-third probability of above-average precipitation in central and northern California.
In contrast, El Niño will likely result in mild winter conditions in the northeast U.S. This would contrast with the extreme cold temperatures of 2013-14, which caused widespread travel disruptions and stressed power grids.
Sources: E&E News, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NASA begins sixth year of flights studying polar ice changes
October 16, 2014
On October 16, NASA’s Operation IceBridge mission began its sixth season of airborne studies in Antarctica. The research flights monitor ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice conditions to provide baseline measurements before the ICE-Sat2 satellite launches in 2017.
The flights will investigate unsurveyed areas of the Antarctic, as well as rapidly changing glaciers and ice shelves. Trends in ice thickness and mass vary widely across the continent, and scientists hope that new data will help them better understand the processes controlling land and sea ice.
Ice sheets and glaciers are of particular interest because they contribute directly to rising sea levels as they melt. For example, the unstable West Antarctic ice sheet contains enough water to raise sea level by 10-15 feet over the next several centuries. Sea ice does not contribute to sea level rise because it already floats on the ocean, but it does provide an important buffer that protects continental ice shelves from waves and warming water temperatures. Scientists hypothesize that decreasing sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic may have played a role in recent ice shelf collapses.
Sources: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Science, SpaceDaily
Pentagon report warns of climate change threats to national security
October 13, 2014
Climate change “poses immediate risks to U.S. national security,” according to a Pentagon report released on October 13. The report lays out an “adaptation roadmap” that identifies challenges that may be exacerbated in the future by rising global temperatures and outlines strategies to manage them.
The report identifies climate-specific risks, such as military bases affected by rising sea level or increased demand for disaster relief after severe weather events, as well as broader issues, such as climate acting as a “threat multiplier” that will complicate issues such as infectious disease and armed insurgencies. The roadmap emphasizes the importance of domestic and international cooperation in facing these challenges that will cross agency lines and national borders.
Critics of the report suggested that resolving ongoing military conflicts in Syria and Ukraine may be a more appropriate use of the Pentagon’s time and resources. However, defenders of the report point to the role climate plays in current and future humanitarian issues that can increase tensions in unstable regions, leading to unrest and potential military involvement.
Sources: Department of Defense, E&E News