Geoscience Policy Monthly Review
august 2016

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natural hazards

NOAA launches new computer model for flood forecasting

August 16, 2016

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently launched its National Water Model (NWM), a new hydrologic model that the agency claims will yield the “biggest improvement in flood forecasting the country has ever seen.” The new model will allow NOAA’s National Weather Service to incorporate the new information into its forecasts to determine when there could be too much or too little water.

Using a new NOAA supercomputer, the model will simulate how water moves throughout the nation’s rivers and streams using mathematical representations of different processes, such as soil moisture, runoff, stream velocity, and vegetation type. Additionally, by providing information on fine spatial and temporal scales, the NWM will allow NOAA to increase the number of locations where it can forecast conditions from 4,000 to 2.7 million.

The launch coincides with the current historic flooding in Louisiana after days of torrential rain inundated the Baton Rouge area with over 20 inches of rainfall. The flood is responsible for the death of at least nine people and has impacted over 40,000 homes, leading Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards to announce an emergency declaration on August 14th.

The new model will eventually allow for street-level predictions of flooding and water quality, but in the meantime, it will improve flash flood forecasts and expand the current areas where flood forecasts are available.

Sources: CNN, E&E Daily, Louisiana.gov, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Weather.com

Wildfire funding issue may be solved in energy conference

August 15, 2016

At a news conference this August, Senators Mike Crapo (R-ID), Jim Risch (R-ID), and Ron Wyden (D-OR) spoke optimistically that a House-Senate conference committee can work to resolve differences on the North American Energy Security and Infrastructure Act of 2016 (S. 2012 & H.R. 8).

The conference committee will try to solve the budget problems of the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), which has been forced to borrow cash from other USFS accounts to cover rising wildfire fighting costs that now consume more than half of the agency’s budget.

As a solution, Sens. Crapo, Risch, and Wyden suggest providing disaster funding for wildfires to match the 10-year rolling average for fire suppression, and call for more forest management practices, such as forest clearing, to reduce the risk of fire spreading.

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration and others, including the Under Secretary for Natural Resources and Environment at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, are currently proposing a different solution that would appropriate only 70 percent of the 10-year average for fire management costs, use emergency funds to cover additional needs, and leave the remaining 30 percent for proactive forest management and resiliency plans. They argue that the proposed bill fails to solve the underlying problem: more fires and rising costs.

Despite the disagreement, Sen. Wyden hopes support from the Senate’s third-ranking Democrat, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who has complained that the budget borrowing drains resources away from fighting natural hazard problems in the East, will build bipartisan support for the bill.

Sources: Congress.gov, Daily Dispatch, E&E PM, Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources, The Spokesman-Review